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First Trend Goods & Services Trade Surplus Since Mid-2022

CANADA DATA
  • The merchandise trade balance was stronger than expected in October with a surplus of a seasonally adjusted C$3.0B (cons C$1.8B) but the gloss of the surprise was taken off by a downward revised C$1.1B (initial $2.0B) in September.
  • It leaves the highest single month goods surplus since Jun’22, whilst the three-month average pushed up to an estimated 1.2% GDP.
  • It’s a sizeable swing from the -2% GDP deficit tracked in the three months to July, with 2pps coming from energy but also a supporting 1.2pps coming from non-energy.
  • The latter’s deficit of -7.5% GDP is close to the -7.2% GDP in the spring but is otherwise the smallest non-energy deficit since late 2021.
  • The services deficit meanwhile continues to sit at -1% GDP, allowing the first push back into a goods and services surplus on a three-month basis since Aug’22, albeit at just 0.2% GDP.

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