Free Trial

First Trend Goods & Services Trade Surplus Since Mid-2022

  • The merchandise trade balance was stronger than expected in October with a surplus of a seasonally adjusted C$3.0B (cons C$1.8B) but the gloss of the surprise was taken off by a downward revised C$1.1B (initial $2.0B) in September.
  • It leaves the highest single month goods surplus since Jun’22, whilst the three-month average pushed up to an estimated 1.2% GDP.
  • It’s a sizeable swing from the -2% GDP deficit tracked in the three months to July, with 2pps coming from energy but also a supporting 1.2pps coming from non-energy.
  • The latter’s deficit of -7.5% GDP is close to the -7.2% GDP in the spring but is otherwise the smallest non-energy deficit since late 2021.
  • The services deficit meanwhile continues to sit at -1% GDP, allowing the first push back into a goods and services surplus on a three-month basis since Aug’22, albeit at just 0.2% GDP.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.