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Fiscal Stimulus: Quicktake


Several stimulus related headlines during second half rounding out the week on a positive note: SCHUMER SAYS SENATE ON TRACK TO PASS STIMULUS BEFORE MARCH 14, Bbg, while House Budget Comm just released text of stimulus bill ahead Monday's markup: LINK

JP Morgan analysts estimate a $1.7T stimulus package to pass in March.

  • All told we now expect 6.4% (4Q/4Q) GDP growth this year and 2.8% next year
  • We see the labor market getting back to full employment, or around 4% unemployment, by 2Q22 and expect core PCE inflation to reach 2.0% by 4Q22, with balanced risks around the outlook
  • While the outlooks for growth and inflation are moving up, Fed rhetoric appears to be getting more dovish

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