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Fixed Weight Wage Growth Surprisingly Cooled In September

CANADA
  • Payrolls employment rose 85.3k in September, broadly supporting the recent uptick in the more timely labour report for October, which jumped from 21k in Sep to 108k in Oct.
  • As always with the SEPH report, the wage component is more interesting. Here, fixed weight wage growth, which better adjusts for compositional changes, continued to moderate to 3.4% Y/Y, the softest since Feb as it fell from 4.2% in Aug and a peak 5.4% in April.
  • There’s the usual issue with time lags, but it contrasts with the latest acceleration in employee wage growth in the October labour report to recent highs of 5.6% Y/Y or 5.3% Y/Y on a full-time basis.
  • It should see wage growth in next Friday’s labour report for November watched particularly closely, the last of the major releases before the BoC on Dec 7.


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