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EUROZONE ISSUANCE

EGB Supply for W/C Jul 26

USDCAD TECHS

Pullback Considered Corrective

US TSYS SUMMARY

What a Short, Strange Trip It's Been

GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK

Pfizer, Moderna Jabs Retain High Trust; AZ, Sputnik Lower

AUDUSD TECHS

Trend Indicators Remain Bearish

GERMAN DATA

CPI: Bbg: 0.0% m/m, -0.3% y/y; Prev (Sep): -0.2% m/m, -0.2% y/y

HICP: Bbg: 0.0% m/m, -0.4% y/y; Prev (Sep): -0.4% m/m, -0.4% y/y

  • MNI's analysis of state-level CPI data from the six states that have published so far (just above 67% of national total) suggests pan-German inflation will come in stronger than market expectations.
  • Our estimate points to a CPI drop of 0.1% on an annual basis, while the monthly rate is seen flat in Oct
  • The y/y HICP dropped to -0.4% in Sep, marking the second negative reading this year and and the lowest level since Jan 2015.
  • Sep's downtick was mainly driven by the German VAT cut, which was implemented in July and has had a negative effect ever since.
  • Energy prices showed another y/y decline in Sep and Destatis noted that prices would have risen 0.6% excluding energy prices
  • Food inflation continued to increase modestly in Sep.
  • Survey evidence also suggests a upside risk as well:
  • The recently released flash composite PMI noted that prices charged for goods and services rose for the first time since Feb, reflecting increases in the service and mfg sector.


MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3814 | irene.prihoda@marketnews.com