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Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
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CPI: Bbg: 0.0% m/m, -0.3% y/y; Prev (Sep): -0.2% m/m, -0.2% y/y
HICP: Bbg: 0.0% m/m, -0.4% y/y; Prev (Sep): -0.4% m/m, -0.4% y/y
- MNI's analysis of state-level CPI data from the six states that have published so far (just above 67% of national total) suggests pan-German inflation will come in stronger than market expectations.
- Our estimate points to a CPI drop of 0.1% on an annual basis, while the monthly rate is seen flat in Oct
- The y/y HICP dropped to -0.4% in Sep, marking the second negative reading this year and and the lowest level since Jan 2015.
- Sep's downtick was mainly driven by the German VAT cut, which was implemented in July and has had a negative effect ever since.
- Energy prices showed another y/y decline in Sep and Destatis noted that prices would have risen 0.6% excluding energy prices
- Food inflation continued to increase modestly in Sep.
- Survey evidence also suggests a upside risk as well:
- The recently released flash composite PMI noted that prices charged for goods and services rose for the first time since Feb, reflecting increases in the service and mfg sector.