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Flash GDP Data Miss Expectations, ECJ To Rule On Polish FX Loans This Week


EUR/PLN pulled back from the session/four-month high of PLN4.7987 ahead of the release of below-forecast flash GDP readings for Q4. The rate last deals +20 pips at PLN4.7884, with bulls looking for gains towards the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 - Dec 26 sell-off at PLN4.8340. Conversely, bears look for a dip towards Feb 2 low of PLN4.6787.

  • Poland's economy grew 2.0% Y/Y in the final three months of last year versus 2.2% expected, according to preliminary data. At the same time, the seasonally adjusted quarterly contraction of 2.4% Q/Q was deeper than forecast (-0.5%). Final data, including the breakdown into components, will be published on February 28.
  • Adding pressure to the local assets might be the imminent verdict from the European Court of Justice, which is considering a $22bn case brought by Polish borrowers against banks offering CHF mortgage contracts. The ECJ is expected to issue its ruling this Thursday.
  • Furthermore, the fate of key judiciary reforms needed to unlock EU recovery funds remains uncertain after President Andrzej Duda sent the bill for review to the Constitutional Court.

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