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Flat Start For SONIA, Final Services PMI Due, ~36bp Of ’24 BoE Cuts Priced

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A flat, low volume start for SONIA futures, with Bunds roughly in line with levels seen during yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~36bp of cuts through year end, with the first 25bp cut more than fully discounted come the end of the Sep MPC.
  • Local headline flow continues to focus on political matters, with the initial Sunak-Starmer televised debate revealing little new and the Tories still trailing by a very wide margin in the polls.
  • Final services PMI data headlines the UK calendar today, which should leave focus on wider headline flow & spill over from U.S. data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.202+0.2
Aug-245.117-8.3
Sep-245.049-15.1
Nov-244.924-27.6
Dec-244.844-35.6
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A flat, low volume start for SONIA futures, with Bunds roughly in line with levels seen during yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~36bp of cuts through year end, with the first 25bp cut more than fully discounted come the end of the Sep MPC.
  • Local headline flow continues to focus on political matters, with the initial Sunak-Starmer televised debate revealing little new and the Tories still trailing by a very wide margin in the polls.
  • Final services PMI data headlines the UK calendar today, which should leave focus on wider headline flow & spill over from U.S. data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.202+0.2
Aug-245.117-8.3
Sep-245.049-15.1
Nov-244.924-27.6
Dec-244.844-35.6