Flow remains risk-off, although havens &......>

FOREX: Flow remains risk-off, although havens & risk proxies are generally back

from extremes.

- TRY the standout, with a flash crash seen in the lira, and tied in with the

usual Mrs Watanabe flow speculation that accompanies a move at that time of day.

USD/TRY last up ~700 pips at TRY5.8280, after trading as high as TRY6.3954.

- Back to the majors, JPY the outperformer, with a fresh YtD low registered,

although USD/JPY has since reclaimed Y105.00. Commodity FX underperforms, as you

would expect, with the scandies at the bottom of the G10 pile.

- USD/CNH has stabilised for now, but still +370 pips around CNH6.1680. Rate

topped out at CNH7.1926 in early trade. The RTRS median estimate for the USD/CNY

fix is CNY7.0528. As a reminder, the mid-point was set at CNY7.0572 on Friday,

so it looks like the counter cyclical adjustment factor may be "beefed up" to

support the yuan today, if the estimates are accurate.

- USD/EM & USD/Asia generally well bid.