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Focus on Ingves' speech today

RIKSBANK
  • Following this morning's inflation print there will be increased focus on Governor Ingves' speech today at 11:00BST / 12:00CET entitled "The economic situation and current monetary policy" which will be held at Danske Bank.
  • CPIF came in at 6.44% (Riksbank forecast was 5.93%) while CPIF excluding energy was 4.54% (Riksbank forecast was 4.31%).
  • As we noted in earlier comments (RIKSBANK: Risk of 50bp growing) and CPIF hits 1991 high there is an increasing risk of a 50bp hike in June.
  • Governor Ingves said on Tuesday that a 50bp hike was "not something we see in front of us at the moment” and "We will have to handle that in case the developments would turn out very differently compared to what we think at the moment, different in the sense that the inflation moves much higher than we have forecast.”
  • If he changes tone today there could be considerably implications for SEK. In the Minutes Governor Ingves sounded like one of the more hawkish members - but Skingsley sounded even more hawkish, so we would assume if Ingves voted for 50bp, she would too. And given that the governor has the vote in the case of a 3-3 vote split on the Executive Board, if Ingves was in favour of a 50bp hike, then there would only need to be one more member to join him and Skingsley. So if Ingves is hawkish today, expect SEK strength.
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