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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL MACRO
The upcoming preliminary PMI prints for the EU and US will present an important update in terms of the global macro backdrop. We had the preliminary Japan print earlier for July, which slipped back into contractionary territory, although it remains above recent lows.
- The broader backdrop of global data outcomes has generally been to surprise on the downside, as per the Citi global economic surprise index. This index is plotted below against global IP growth in y/y terms.
- All else equal the softness in global data outcomes is pointing to some downside risks. This is consistent with commodity price weakness as per the earlier bullet.
- This reinforces the importance of the upcoming flash PMIs, as the Citi surprise index measure is close to trough points from recent years (excluding the 2020 Covid episode). Such surprise indices have also had a tendency to lead market growth expectations.
Fig 1: Citi Global EASI Versus Global IP Growth Y/Y
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- By major economy/region, the Citi measures are all in negative territory except for the UK, see the second chart below.
- Note we get July PMIs for China in the early part of next week.
Fig 2: Citi EASI By Major Economy/Region
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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