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Focus On US Employment Report, Brazil IP Data Also Due

BRAZIL
  • BRL rallied through the session yesterday, with USDBRL reaching a low of 4.9108 near the close, following the BCB’s expected 50bp rate cut and confirmation that it would continue with its strategy of gradual easing. On the open today, the main focus will be on the January employment report in the US (1330GMT/0830ET), for which the consensus is for a 185k increase in payrolls (vs +216k prior), an uptick in unemployment and moderation in AHE growth. However, the impact of the annual benchmark revisions mean that this report carries large two-sided risk.
  • Data wise, industrial production is expected to rise by 0.3% m/m in December, following a 0.5% increase the month before, with gains led by the mining sector. On an annual basis, IP is expected to fall by -0.5% y/y, vs. +1.3% previously (1200GMT/0700ET). January vehicle sales data (prior 248,544) will also cross. Earlier, FIPE CPI rose by 0.46% m/m in January, vs. +0.38% previously.
    • Dec. Industrial Production YoY, est. -0.5%, prior 1.3%
    • Dec. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%

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