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Focus Still on Government, Congress Budget Discussions

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real looks set for a stronger open today, as global risk sentiment has been lifted by news of the 50bp RRR cut in China. Having briefly crossed the 5.00 level on the open yesterday, USDBRL tracked lower to ~4.95 at the close. Domestically, there are no data releases scheduled for today. Yesterday, tax collection came in at BRL 231.2bn in December, a little above expectations, as all lines of revenues improved.
    • For the whole year, Itau note that tax collections, ex revenue from the REFIS/PRT and tax deferrals, rose by 1.3% in real terms (vs. +8.9% in 2022). For 2024, they expect a mild improvement in tax collection (excluding government measures to boost revenues), despite weaker GDP growth.
  • Attention will thus remain on Haddad’s planned fiscal reforms, in particular the ongoing discussion between the government and Congress on the payroll tax measures. Earlier this week, reports suggested an agreement could be reached this week or next. Local media are also reporting on tensions on the fiscal front, with Estadao noting that parliamentary amendment cuts are intensifying the clash between Lula and Congress over the budget.
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