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FOCUS Survey Cements Expectations of 100bps Further Easing by Year-End

BRAZIL
  • Valor writes that finance minister Haddad has returned to the center of political deal-making. The headlines follow Haddad facilitating a meeting between BCB Chief Campos Neto and President Lula last week – the first since Lula took office earlier this year, amid a fractious relationship between the two.
  • Lula has completed his hip and eye surgery after being admitted to hospital last week, and has been discharged earlier than planned to recuperate at the Presidential palaces.
  • FGV CPI rose relative to the prior, printing 0.27% (Prev. 0.16%).

Very few changes for the Monday Focus Survey:

  • Inflation: 2023 4.86% (Prev. 4.86%), 2024 3.87% (Prev. 3.86%)
  • GDP: 2023 2.92% (Prev. 2.92%), 2024 1.50% (Prev. 1.50%)
  • SELIC: 2023 11.75% (Prev. 11.75%), 2024 9.00% (Prev. 9.00%)
  • USDBRL: 2023 4.95 (Prev. 4.95)
Trade data and September manufacturing PMI numbers cross Monday. The monthly trade balance is expected to show a smaller surplus at $9.0bln (Prev. $9.8bln). Campos Neto is set to speak later today, appearing at an event hosted by the Brazilian FX association Abracam.

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