Focus Turns to Fresh Forecast Round from NBP

• EUR/PLN cross holding the entirety of the post-rate decision losses a few minutes out from the decision - consensus was looking for a further cut today, but a minority of analysts saw a decent chance of unchanged today given the likely political upheaval after the elections and the uncertainty surrounding the appetite for further cuts after the 100bps in cumulative easing so far this cycle.
• This raises the focus on tomorrow's press conference with governor Glapinski, at which he'll have the opportunity to defend the cycle so far, and justify and unchanged decision today. We receive a policy statement at 1500GMT/1600CET, which should include fresh forecasts.

Early sell-side views:

• mBank: Further rate cuts are very unlikely
• Pekao: This is not a September-worthy surprise. So we are waiting until the National Bank of Poland confirms its belief that disinflation will continue next year
• ING: Before this decision, we had already significantly reduced our expectations for rate cuts, because the inflation prospects beyond its declines until 1H24 are not so optimistic.