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Follow the Bouncing Ball That Is Tsys

Choppy late session trade tied to month/quarter-end flows Wednesday, Tsys weaker but well off session lows from the closing bell, while equities pared gains after making new all-time highs in SPUs (ESM1 3983.75). Late chop exacerbated by thinning markets ahead Fri's March NFP (+650k est vs. +379k last for Feb) and participation heading into Easter holiday (early 1100ET close Fri).
  • Post-ADP Bounce: Tsy futures blipped higher after ADP private employ data came out a little less optimistic than estimated (+517k vs. +550k) with futures inside the
  • overnight range on the open, curves mixed with short end steeper.
  • Tsys inched off early lows into midday, loosely following equities, amid two-way trade, positioning ahead the extended holiday weekend, but reversed course/extended lows during the second half as equities plowed higher. Brief bounce in rates after French Pres Emmanuel Macron anncd will extend nationwide lockdown measures for the next four weeks.
  • Tsys see-sawed lower yet again, making session lows on the bell (10YY 1.7494%H; 30YY 2.4289%H) -- only to gap higher on hevy volumes in the hour that followed with couple ultra-band Block buys adding impetus +2,000 WNM1 181-19, buy through 181-16 post-time offer; +3,500 WNM1 182-05 buy through 182-01 post-time).
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1bps at 0.1564%, 5-Yr is up 3.1bps at 0.9264%, 10-Yr is up 2.9bps at 1.7315%, and 30-Yr is up 4bps at 2.4082%.

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