Following on from Chancellor Rishi Sunak's.......>

UK: Following on from Chancellor Rishi Sunak's Economic Update on Wednesday,

focus this week will return to the economic data, the OBR's Fiscal

Sustainability Report (FSR) and the DMO's updated gilt remit update covering the

period to November. The OBR report will be a key event for the gilt market and

feed into expectations for the announcement of the gilt remit later in the week.

- The OBR Fiscal Sustainability Report will include an update of the coronavirus

reference scenario analysis. This analysis was originally published on 14 April

and then updated on 14 May. The OBR have already confirmed that last week's

announced measures will not be included in the numbers to be published this

week. The accompanying government documents for Sunak's statement said that the

new measures would account for up to GBP30bln of extra spending, but most

analysis we have read suggest that the consensus is that closer to GBP20bln of

spending has been added. The OBR's new analysis will take into account the

previously announced lockdown reversal plans and provide three scenarios and all

will be updated for the smaller than assumed fall in GDP (recall that the OBR's

scenario had included a larger fall than consensus at the time). (1/2)