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Follows US Tsys Cheaper, Heavy US Calendar Today

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are weaker (YM -3.0 & XM -4.5) after US tsys reverse course after the debt ceiling bill passes the US House of Representatives. The bill now goes to the Democrat-led Senate and President Biden has urged it to pass the agreement as soon as possible. In terms of the Senate, Bloomberg is reporting that several senators have said that they won’t allow the legislation to pass quickly.

  • Following the announcement, US tsys have weakened, reversing the earlier 1-3bp rally observed during the early Asia-Pacific session and turning into a 3-4bp cheapening across the yield curve, extending up to the 10-year maturity.
  • Also potentially weighing on ACGBs was news that Q1 Capex printed higher than expected at +2.4% q/q versus expectations of +1.0%. The 2nd estimate of 2023-24 investment plans at A$137bn also printed above its estimate of A$136bn.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-4bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +2bp at -3bp.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bp higher on the day with EFPs slightly wider.
  • The bills strip sees pricing flat to -4 with late whites leading.
  • RBA dated OIS is 2-5bp firmer for meetings beyond August with April’24 leading.
  • The local calendar tomorrow sees Investor Loans data for April slated.
  • The AOFM plans to sell A$500mn of the 4.25% 21 April 2026 bond tomorrow.
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