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FOMC and COPOM in Focus, USDBRL Edges Away From 5.00

BRAZIL
  • The updated Bloomberg survey shows 38/43 analysts are expecting a 100bp hike at todays BCB meeting. Three are predicting a 125bp hike and two analysts are calling for another 150bp increase to the Selic rate, despite the February statement signalling a reduction in the hiking pace.
  • The full MNI preview with analyst views can be found here: https://marketnews.com/mni-bcb-preview-march-2022-reducing-the-hiking-pace
  • The most recent sell-off in oil and bid to risk has worked against BRL, a currency that had resiliently prospered throughout the early stages of 2022 and through the initial stages of the Russian invasion.
  • Additionally, with momentum having waned below the psychological 5.00 mark, USDBRL has gradually moved higher, closing Tuesday’s session above 5.16.
  • A poll commissioned by Genial Investimentos and Instituto Quaest shows that Brazil former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would get 54% of voting intentions and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro would have 32%, up from 30% in February, in the presidential election runoff. (Bloomberg)

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