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FOMC in Rear View, Evergrande Headlines Still Roiling

US TSYS
Tsys trading mixed but off lows, equities higher but paring gains last half hour after as China's Evergrande making headlines again this morning. Markets still trading with a risk-on tone scaled back slightly after headlines that Chinese officials told "local governments to prepare for downfall" (DJ) of real-estate developer.
  • Otherwise, mkts ruminating over timing and speed of tapering as precursor to lift-off. Main takeaway from Fed Chair Powell's presser: reinforcement that taper very likely annc in Nov barring a poor Sep jobs report (mark your calendar for Fri October 8). Re: Sep payrolls report, Powell actually said he's looking for a "reasonably good one" and later a "decent" one, and NOT a "knockout, great, super strong employment report".
  • Carry-over bid for bonds resumes, outpacing short end while yield curves unwind portion of post-FOMC flattening in short end, 5s30s still well below 100bp around 95. Decent volumes, TYZ1>460k, some deal-tied flow and option hedging ahead Fri's October serial option expiry.
  • Upcoming data includes weekly claims (+320k est vs. 332k prior), Markit PMIs, Fed exits blackout Thu evening. US Tsy auctions: $35B total 4W/8W bills and $14B 10Y TIPS auction re-open.
  • Currently the 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 0.2425%, 5-Yr is up 2.6bps at 0.8765%, 10-Yr is up 3.1bps at 1.3311%, and 30-Yr is up 2.7bps at 1.8351%.

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