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FOMC Low For Longer, Strong Forward Guidance

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsys weaker across the board after the bell -- but well off session lows that occurred when Fed Chairman Powell Q&A got underway. "Strong forward guidance" a little flat as holding near zero into 2023 doesn't exactly underscore a pressing need for alacrity.

  • - Fed keeps rates at lower bound into 2023 and remains committed to asset buying (Tsy, MBS, agency CMBS) "at least" as much as current levels (but futures ratcheted lower anyway). Fed "prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals."
  • - Needless to say, little/no react to early data (August Retail Sales +0.6%, Ex-MV +0.7%; JUL BIZZ INV +0.1%, SALES +3.2%; SEP HOUSING MKT INDEX 83.
  • - Contributing to whippy trade, exceedingly thin volumes, paper thin depth to markets, only 800k TYZ by the close w/participants sidelined into annc.
  • - The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.137%, 5-Yr is up 0.2bps at 0.2738%, 10-Yr is up 1bps at 0.6887%, and 30-Yr is up 1.7bps at 1.4479%.

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