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Free AccessFOMC Participants Perceive Higher Growth, Inflation Risks Vs December
In addition to the stronger economic forecasts in the projections, the diffusion indices of FOMC participants' risk weightings have shifted in a similar direction.
- The diffusion of responses (those saying risks weighted to upside minus those saying risks weighted to downside) points to a positive net risk perception of GDP growth for the first time since mid-2021, with the unemployment rate risks only marginally positive (ie less concern about unemployment rate rising).
- Core PCE and PCE inflation risks were seen as still being to the upside, and marginally more so versus December's projections - stalling progress in that area.
- Separately, "uncertainty" over all of those variables was seen to have fallen vs December's meeting, and are at the lowest since the pandemic, continuing the downward trend.
Source: Federal Reserve
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.