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FOMC Will Welcome Softer Inflation Signs In PMI, UMich

FED

Today's data contained a couple of noteworthy signs of inflation and related expectations diminishing toward year-end (Dec FOMC hike pricing has pulled back 2bp to 54bp accordingly):

  • November's weak flash PMI report contained just what FOMC doves will be looking for in terms of bringing supply back into better alignment with demand, and thus pull down inflation (see earlier note).
  • Additionally, the final UMIch 1Y inflation expectation was revised down to 4.9% from 5.1% prior (with 5-10Y steady at 3.0%). From the prelim data it looked as though expectations were picking up again (from 5% in Oct), but this will relieve some of those concerns.
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