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FOREX: EURAUD Breaks Trendline Support, Pierces 1.6000

FOREX
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  • Single currency weakness continues to be well noted in the crosses, with stable US equity markets continuing to provide a relative boost to higher beta currencies. We noted yesterday that EURAUD weakness comes amid Westpac revising their RBA forecast, pushing out the start date of the rate-cutting cycle from February to May, and notably joining NAB who adjusted its call last week.
  • Price action Friday has seen EURAUD (-0.31%) continue south, and momentum picked up on a breach of trendline support drawn off the 2022 lows, which intersected around 1.6120. EURUSD’s sharp move below 1.0400 also prompted EURAUD to pierce its key medium-term pivot level at 1.6000 (low print of 1.5968).
  • Attention will now be on a daily/weekly close below this level, which could signal scope for a more protracted move lower. Targets would include 1.5736 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022/2024 price swing) and 1.5253, another key medium-term pivot.
  • Data points of note next week include German IFO on Monday and Australian CPI data which is scheduled on Wednesday.
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  • Single currency weakness continues to be well noted in the crosses, with stable US equity markets continuing to provide a relative boost to higher beta currencies. We noted yesterday that EURAUD weakness comes amid Westpac revising their RBA forecast, pushing out the start date of the rate-cutting cycle from February to May, and notably joining NAB who adjusted its call last week.
  • Price action Friday has seen EURAUD (-0.31%) continue south, and momentum picked up on a breach of trendline support drawn off the 2022 lows, which intersected around 1.6120. EURUSD’s sharp move below 1.0400 also prompted EURAUD to pierce its key medium-term pivot level at 1.6000 (low print of 1.5968).
  • Attention will now be on a daily/weekly close below this level, which could signal scope for a more protracted move lower. Targets would include 1.5736 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022/2024 price swing) and 1.5253, another key medium-term pivot.
  • Data points of note next week include German IFO on Monday and Australian CPI data which is scheduled on Wednesday.