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FOREX: EURJPY Bear Cycle Extends Ahead of US Data and ECB

FOREX
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  • While USDJPY has broken a notable support point overnight and printed fresh lows for 2024, EURJPY is yet to breach the lows seen in early August, a level that could take focus over the upcoming US data and ECB meeting on Thursday.
  • As noted earlier, yield differentials with Japan continue to narrow and this is helping to underpin the bearish theme in EURJPY, which has been exacerbated by not only the weakness for major equity indices in early September, but also the fact that a pick-up in Eurozone growth is yet to materialize, being held back by restrained fixed investment and declining fiscal stimulus.
  • EURJPY trades 0.35% lower today as the bear cycle that started mid-August extends. All key retracement points of the rally between Aug 5 - 15, have been cleared and this exposes the key support and bear trigger at 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
  • Furthermore, there remains a cluster of support between 153.49-154.42 (shown below) and a close below the former would significantly strengthen bearish conditions. Pivot support at 151.69 remains a notable target for a deeper correction lower.
  • On the upside, initial firm resistance is not seen until 160.14, the 20-day EMA and short-term gains at this juncture would continue to be considered technically corrective.
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  • While USDJPY has broken a notable support point overnight and printed fresh lows for 2024, EURJPY is yet to breach the lows seen in early August, a level that could take focus over the upcoming US data and ECB meeting on Thursday.
  • As noted earlier, yield differentials with Japan continue to narrow and this is helping to underpin the bearish theme in EURJPY, which has been exacerbated by not only the weakness for major equity indices in early September, but also the fact that a pick-up in Eurozone growth is yet to materialize, being held back by restrained fixed investment and declining fiscal stimulus.
  • EURJPY trades 0.35% lower today as the bear cycle that started mid-August extends. All key retracement points of the rally between Aug 5 - 15, have been cleared and this exposes the key support and bear trigger at 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
  • Furthermore, there remains a cluster of support between 153.49-154.42 (shown below) and a close below the former would significantly strengthen bearish conditions. Pivot support at 151.69 remains a notable target for a deeper correction lower.
  • On the upside, initial firm resistance is not seen until 160.14, the 20-day EMA and short-term gains at this juncture would continue to be considered technically corrective.