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FOREX: EURUSD Sinks to a 1.0335 Low Before Stabilising, USDCHF Soars

FOREX
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  • Friday's prelim Eurozone PMI numbers were seen as critical for near-term Euro sentiment and the particularly soft releases for both France and Germany weighed heavily across the single currency during the European session.  
  • The fallout took EUR/USD to trade fresh pullback lows at 1.0335 – and despite stabilising, we remain 0.55% lower on the session, just above the 1.04 handle. This would represent the lowest weekly close since November 2022 and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish trend condition.
  • Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend, suggesting scope for a continuation near-term and beyond today’s low print of 1.0335, immediate sights are on 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection. Below here, a previous low print at 1.0223 and 1.0201 (61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg), represent an important area of support.
  • While bearish Euro price action was broad based on Friday, there was a notable turnaround for the Swiss Franc, with EURCHF actually seen higher on the session and USDCHF the best performing major pair, up 0.8%. The moves came as SNB Chairman Schlegel reiterated the central bank board cannot rule out going back to negative rates. Sight deposits data on Monday will also be of high importance to see if the SNB may have intervened at all to curb CHF strength.
  • USDCHF rose to a fresh post-election high of 0.8957 and exponential moving average indicators continue to highlight a bull trend. Medium-term attention now turns to 0.9050 and the key resistance zone between 0.9224/44.
  • German IFO data crosses Monday before Tuesday’s release of the FOMC minutes. On Wednesday focus will turn to Australian CPI and the RBNZ decision.
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  • Friday's prelim Eurozone PMI numbers were seen as critical for near-term Euro sentiment and the particularly soft releases for both France and Germany weighed heavily across the single currency during the European session.  
  • The fallout took EUR/USD to trade fresh pullback lows at 1.0335 – and despite stabilising, we remain 0.55% lower on the session, just above the 1.04 handle. This would represent the lowest weekly close since November 2022 and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish trend condition.
  • Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend, suggesting scope for a continuation near-term and beyond today’s low print of 1.0335, immediate sights are on 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection. Below here, a previous low print at 1.0223 and 1.0201 (61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg), represent an important area of support.
  • While bearish Euro price action was broad based on Friday, there was a notable turnaround for the Swiss Franc, with EURCHF actually seen higher on the session and USDCHF the best performing major pair, up 0.8%. The moves came as SNB Chairman Schlegel reiterated the central bank board cannot rule out going back to negative rates. Sight deposits data on Monday will also be of high importance to see if the SNB may have intervened at all to curb CHF strength.
  • USDCHF rose to a fresh post-election high of 0.8957 and exponential moving average indicators continue to highlight a bull trend. Medium-term attention now turns to 0.9050 and the key resistance zone between 0.9224/44.
  • German IFO data crosses Monday before Tuesday’s release of the FOMC minutes. On Wednesday focus will turn to Australian CPI and the RBNZ decision.