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FOREX: GBP Looking Through Rates Vol, Downtrend Intact

FOREX
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  • Meanwhile, GBP is proving resilient to further volatility for UK rates - as the fallout from yesterday's UK Budget continues to press UK short- and medium-term yields higher. While markets are pricing in a far shallower easing cycle for the BoE next year - GBP is showing little signs of strength, keeping the over-arching bear trend in GBP/USD intact. 1.2909 remains the key downside level here.
  • JPY trades well, markedly stronger vs all others in G10 on the back of the BoJ decision overnight. USD/JPY came under pressure after BoJ Governor Ueda inferred that one headwind to further tightening has eased, with markets “slowly regaining stability”. This allowed Bank to remove the reference to having “time to consider” its next steps, with data-dependence front & centre. As a result, markets have brought forward pricing for a December rate hike in Japan.
  • Lastly, NOK saw some modest demand as Norges Bank trimmed FX purchases to NOK150mln/day in November, after NOK400mln the four months prior. This was lower than the three analysts forecast we had seen coming into the announcement and reflects a more expansionary-than-expected 2025 budget (-ve for FX purchases) and a one-off NOK82bln transfer from the Government’s account at the Norges Bank to the Sovereign Wealth Fund (+ve for FX purchases).
  • Focus shifts to prelim Eurozone CPI stats for October, ahead of weekly US jobless claims stats later today. This comes alongside September PCE numbers and the MNI Chicago PMI, which is expected to improve slightly to 47.0 from 46.6. Speakers due today include ECB's Escriva and ECB's Knot - who speaks in his capacity at the Financial Stability Board.
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  • Meanwhile, GBP is proving resilient to further volatility for UK rates - as the fallout from yesterday's UK Budget continues to press UK short- and medium-term yields higher. While markets are pricing in a far shallower easing cycle for the BoE next year - GBP is showing little signs of strength, keeping the over-arching bear trend in GBP/USD intact. 1.2909 remains the key downside level here.
  • JPY trades well, markedly stronger vs all others in G10 on the back of the BoJ decision overnight. USD/JPY came under pressure after BoJ Governor Ueda inferred that one headwind to further tightening has eased, with markets “slowly regaining stability”. This allowed Bank to remove the reference to having “time to consider” its next steps, with data-dependence front & centre. As a result, markets have brought forward pricing for a December rate hike in Japan.
  • Lastly, NOK saw some modest demand as Norges Bank trimmed FX purchases to NOK150mln/day in November, after NOK400mln the four months prior. This was lower than the three analysts forecast we had seen coming into the announcement and reflects a more expansionary-than-expected 2025 budget (-ve for FX purchases) and a one-off NOK82bln transfer from the Government’s account at the Norges Bank to the Sovereign Wealth Fund (+ve for FX purchases).
  • Focus shifts to prelim Eurozone CPI stats for October, ahead of weekly US jobless claims stats later today. This comes alongside September PCE numbers and the MNI Chicago PMI, which is expected to improve slightly to 47.0 from 46.6. Speakers due today include ECB's Escriva and ECB's Knot - who speaks in his capacity at the Financial Stability Board.