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FOREX: Greenback Stable Above Lows, AUD Firms on Jobs Stats

FOREX
  • The USD Index has stabilised above this week's pullback low of 103.650 as the global equity backdrop improves somewhat (e-mini S&P +0.2%, Hong Kong +0.7%, but strong JPY keeps Nikkei 225 lower by 2.3%). GBP largely unresponsive to inline jobs data - EUR/GBP remains ~20 pips off 0.8383 key support with Aug BoE cut partially priced at ~9bps as of yesterday's close.
  • Stronger-than-expected employment numbers from Australia (higher job gains, 2nd highest participation rate since COVID) have propped AUD higher against all others, putting AUD/USD ~25 pips off the overnight lows of 0.6715. Further gains here for AUD/USD would narrow the gap with a sizeable 0.6800 strike rolling off at today's NY cut (A$1.1bln). 
  • USD/JPY's bounce off lows hasn't prevented JPY from recovering further ground against most others in G10. The standout here is CHF/JPY, which remains in close proximity to recent pullback lows of 175.89, a break below which opens 175.69 - the 50-dma and a level last broken in early May. 
  • The ECB rate decision is expected to result in no change, keeping focus on the September meeting as the next likely cut (23bps priced here). US weekly jobs data, Fed's Goolsbee, Logan & Daly also due.
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