Free Trial

FOREX: JPY Spot TWI Nears 5% Rally Off Lows, EUR Sinks on PMIs

FOREX
  • Once again, broad JPY strength was evident across the European open, with JPY the best performing currency across G10 for a third consecutive session. JPY got a boost from a further flight-to-quality, a poor showing from global equity futures markets and a continued unwind of the carry trade fuelled USD/JPY rally. Cross-selling against antipodean currencies continues to stand out.
  • After the key technical breaks in AUD/JPY earlier in the week, NZD/JPY is following suit Wednesday as price breaks the 200-dma support for the first time since June last year. Slippage through 90.82 would mark a total reversal of the rally  off the early May lows, and could come into contention on an extension lower - the cross has traded lower in 10 of the past 11 sessions - helping trigger  a technically oversold signal in the 14-day RSI.
  • EUR similarly trades poorly on the back of a soft set of PMIs from France, Germany and the Eurozone-wide reading. EUR/USD was pressured to a new pullback low at 1.0826 on heavy volumes - making for the busiest session of the week so far. Interestingly, the protracted spot weakness off last week's high has worked against the formation of a 'golden cross' in DMA space (50-dma > 200-dma), denying  markets a possible positive technical signal to slow the decline and build a  base for a recovery.
  • Focus turns to the remaining flash PMI prints today, aswell as the Bank of Canada rate decision, at which markets are split between a hold and a back-to-back 25bps rate cut, which would put the base rate at 4.50%. OIS pricing has another easing step priced at ~90% probability. New home sales data are then set to follow for June. 
281 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Once again, broad JPY strength was evident across the European open, with JPY the best performing currency across G10 for a third consecutive session. JPY got a boost from a further flight-to-quality, a poor showing from global equity futures markets and a continued unwind of the carry trade fuelled USD/JPY rally. Cross-selling against antipodean currencies continues to stand out.
  • After the key technical breaks in AUD/JPY earlier in the week, NZD/JPY is following suit Wednesday as price breaks the 200-dma support for the first time since June last year. Slippage through 90.82 would mark a total reversal of the rally  off the early May lows, and could come into contention on an extension lower - the cross has traded lower in 10 of the past 11 sessions - helping trigger  a technically oversold signal in the 14-day RSI.
  • EUR similarly trades poorly on the back of a soft set of PMIs from France, Germany and the Eurozone-wide reading. EUR/USD was pressured to a new pullback low at 1.0826 on heavy volumes - making for the busiest session of the week so far. Interestingly, the protracted spot weakness off last week's high has worked against the formation of a 'golden cross' in DMA space (50-dma > 200-dma), denying  markets a possible positive technical signal to slow the decline and build a  base for a recovery.
  • Focus turns to the remaining flash PMI prints today, aswell as the Bank of Canada rate decision, at which markets are split between a hold and a back-to-back 25bps rate cut, which would put the base rate at 4.50%. OIS pricing has another easing step priced at ~90% probability. New home sales data are then set to follow for June.