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FOREX: PMIs Drill EUR to Multi-Year Lows

FOREX
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  • Having traded poorly through the week, Friday's prelim PMI numbers were seen as critical for near-term trade in the single currency and the particularly soft releases for both France and Germany weighed heavily across the EUR into the NY crossover.  
  • Fallout from the PMIs prompted EUR/USD to trade fresh pullback lows at 1.0335 - that's the lowest print since 2022, and saw very solid participation on the move: Z4 EUR futures traded well over double what you'd normally see at this time of day.
  • The break here puts prices at the lowest since '22 and will again re-raise speculation that EUR/USD could revisit parity in the coming months - the options-implied likelihood of touching 1.00 before year-end has spiked - now 9.7%, up from 0.4% in the session before the US election.
  • Heavy EUR selling underpinned the broad USD rally, which is shrugging off the pullback in US yields, and prompting GBP/USD to show below $1.25. This narrows the gap with key levels below at 1.2446 and the firm bear trigger at 1.2300 - the mid-April low.
  • Focus for the duration of the Friday session turns to Canadian retail sales, prelim US PMI numbers for November and the final UMich sentiment print. ECB speak scheduled today includes Schnabel, Villeroy and Nagel.
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  • Having traded poorly through the week, Friday's prelim PMI numbers were seen as critical for near-term trade in the single currency and the particularly soft releases for both France and Germany weighed heavily across the EUR into the NY crossover.  
  • Fallout from the PMIs prompted EUR/USD to trade fresh pullback lows at 1.0335 - that's the lowest print since 2022, and saw very solid participation on the move: Z4 EUR futures traded well over double what you'd normally see at this time of day.
  • The break here puts prices at the lowest since '22 and will again re-raise speculation that EUR/USD could revisit parity in the coming months - the options-implied likelihood of touching 1.00 before year-end has spiked - now 9.7%, up from 0.4% in the session before the US election.
  • Heavy EUR selling underpinned the broad USD rally, which is shrugging off the pullback in US yields, and prompting GBP/USD to show below $1.25. This narrows the gap with key levels below at 1.2446 and the firm bear trigger at 1.2300 - the mid-April low.
  • Focus for the duration of the Friday session turns to Canadian retail sales, prelim US PMI numbers for November and the final UMich sentiment print. ECB speak scheduled today includes Schnabel, Villeroy and Nagel.