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FOREX: Safe Havens Outperformance Limited, Equity & Oil Trends Eyed

FOREX

The USD BBDXY index sits down a touch from end Tuesday levels, last near 1235.5, off around 0.15%. In the G10 space, EUR and CHF are a touch higher, likewise for JPY. AUD and NZD are off slightly but up from session lows. 

  • Early focus was on USD/JPY downside, with the pair seeing a brief dip sub 145.00 but we quickly recovered (the pair last near 145.30). An option expiry for NY cut at 145.00 later may be influencing spot trends today.
  • Still, FX options volumes has been dominated by USD/JPY downside, with a number of $100mn notional trades going through per DTCC (strikes between 140-145.00)
  • We have seen weaker US equity futures, breaking below Tuesday lows, but after that sentiment stabilized somewhat. Eminis last -0.50%, Nasdaq futures off 0.63%. WTI prices slipped under $70/bbl, but follow through has been limited. US yields are relatively steady.
  • This has likely helped curb risk off trends in the FX space. AUD/JPY got to lows near 97.00, but sits back near 97.50 in latest dealings.
  • AUD/USD got to lows of 0.6686, but sits back above 0.6700 now. Q2 GDP headline figures for Australia were close to expectations, albeit with positive revisions. Still, the private domestic economy was quite weak. NZD/USD holds sub 0.6185 in latest dealings.
  • Looking ahead we have ECB speak and the Bank of Canada decision (a 25bps cut is expected). In the US the focus will be on the JOLTS jobs data. 

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