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FOREX: USD Recovers Off Lows as USD Index Builds Base

FOREX
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  • EUR continues to trend lower following the ECB decision and press conference, in what's been a gradual fade off highs (not accompanied by any shift in rates pricing), helping tip EUR/GBP back to flat on the day and re-focus markets on 0.8383, the key support and bear trigger.
  • A recovery in the USD (having been among the poorest performers in Asia-Pac, European morning trade) is also helping, with the USD Index recovering well off the pullback low printed this week at 103.659. The uptick in the USD remains corrective inside the S/T downtrend drawn off the late June highs, but a rally back above the 104.395 200-dma would mark the end of the bear leg, and argue for a firmer corrective phase higher. 
  • Trump's appearance at the RNC convention in Milwaukee could be key for the greenback after his comments to Bloomberg Businessweek earlier this week - wherein he flagged his concerns of an overly strong dollar, highlighting CNY and JPY specifically. The GOP schedule has speeches beginning from 1745CT(2345BST), with Trump’s speech likely running until "at least" 2230CT(0430BST). 
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  • EUR continues to trend lower following the ECB decision and press conference, in what's been a gradual fade off highs (not accompanied by any shift in rates pricing), helping tip EUR/GBP back to flat on the day and re-focus markets on 0.8383, the key support and bear trigger.
  • A recovery in the USD (having been among the poorest performers in Asia-Pac, European morning trade) is also helping, with the USD Index recovering well off the pullback low printed this week at 103.659. The uptick in the USD remains corrective inside the S/T downtrend drawn off the late June highs, but a rally back above the 104.395 200-dma would mark the end of the bear leg, and argue for a firmer corrective phase higher. 
  • Trump's appearance at the RNC convention in Milwaukee could be key for the greenback after his comments to Bloomberg Businessweek earlier this week - wherein he flagged his concerns of an overly strong dollar, highlighting CNY and JPY specifically. The GOP schedule has speeches beginning from 1745CT(2345BST), with Trump’s speech likely running until "at least" 2230CT(0430BST).