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FOREX: USDKRW Soars on Martial Law Headlines, USDJPY Briefly Slides Below 149.00

FOREX
  • The main talking point for global currency markets on Tuesday was centred around the declaration of Martial Law in South Korea by the President, and the resulting KRW weakness. USD/KRW spot and NDF outrights are off the highest levels, but remain around 1.75% higher on the session following the news.
  • USD/KRW spot's intraday high at 1,444.65 intersects well with the mid'22 high, suggesting strong resistance at this level - a rally through here could accelerate today's price action.
  • The government statement provided reassurances that "unlimited" liquidity is to be provided to markets if needed and further meetings between the finance ministry and the central bank are scheduled in the coming hours.
  • In G10, the USD index traded moderately lower on Tuesday, declining around 0.20% ahead of the APAC crossover. Most major pairs have had limited daily adjustments, although USDJPY volatility has remained in focus, with the pair briefly sliding to a new 7-week low of 148.65.
  • Stronger than expected US Jolts job openings halted the USDJPY decline and assisted the recovery to current spot levels around 149.25. The quits rate data were notable in the release, lifting from 1.95% to 2.09% for the highest since May and its first monthly increase on a rounded basis since May 2023.
  • With divergent monetary policy paths clearly weighing on USDJPY in recent weeks, Friday’s US employment report remains the next focus, as well as wage data from Japan. On the downside, 148.17 support is next, the 50% retracement of the Sep 16/Nov 15 rally.
  • Australian GDP headlines the overnight calendar on Wednesday, before the focus turns to US ADP and ISM Services PMI data.
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