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Forint Leads EMEA FX Gains with NBH Easing Pace Expected to Slow

HUF
  • The forint sits at the top of the EMEA FX leaderboard today, on the back of improved risk sentiment and in anticipation of the NBH rate decision this afternoon. Overall, the currency has underperformed on the month, resulting in a technical divergence against its regional peers. Indeed, only the Turkish lira has recorded greater spot losses than the forint against the euro on a YTD basis.
  • Today, EUR/HUF’s range sits within yesterday’s extremes, with the cross sitting above initial support at 394.24, the 20-day EMA. Given the restrained pullback from the Mar 12 high of 399.75, attention is still on the 400.00 handle with concerns over the threat to central bank independence lingering.
  • The NBH is widely expected to moderate the pace of rate cuts from 100bps to at least 75bps due to instability in Hungarian markets over the past month which justify a more cautious approach to easing.
  • The rate decision itself is at 13:00GMT/14:00CET, followed by the release of the policy statement one hour later. Our full preview of the decision, with sell-side analyst views, can be found here.
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