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Forint on Softer Footing Following Recent Rally

HUF
EURHUF has partially pared some of this week’s losses today, with the cross up around 0.2% at typing. Price action today places the forint at the bottom of the EMEA FX pile having topped the list yesterday. Nevertheless, this week’s losses in EURHUF still stand close to 0.5%, with current price below the 50-day EMA at 381.29. HUF price has swung in accordance with global developments this week and continues to be characterised by the high-beta response to the trajectory of US and European rates.
  • Technically, the recent move lower marked the end of the latest consolidative phase and confirmed a clear break of the 50-day EMA. This strengthens the current short-term bearish conditions and signals scope for a move towards 377.93 and potentially 373.98, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the move higher between Jun 12 - Aug 3.
  • Despite Deputy Governor Virag’s comments that market pricing of rates beyond September is “excessive”, the 6x9 HUF FRA fell below 10 points in mid-August and touched its lowest levels since mid-June yesterday, showing a continuation of easing in medium-term pricing. This suggests that the recent rally in the forint cannot be fully explained by NBH fundamentals, and that instead the main driver continues to be global developments.
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