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Forint Outperforms Regional Peers as Inflation Edges Higher in April

HUF
Upside across the US curve after the UoM data prompted some USD buying, resulting in EURHUF recovering moderately off its intraday lows. Nevertheless, the forint remains in the green against the euro and looks set to end the week around 0.5% higher against the single currency. The broader move lower in the USD index from yesterday’s high has supported EM FX over the past two sessions, while data confirming the end of Hungary’s 14-consecutive month disinflationary trend is likely accounting for slight HUF outperformance within the EMEA region.
  • Hungary’s headline inflation rate edged higher from +3.6% y/y in March to +3.7% in April, in-line with analyst expectations. Month-on-month, prices rose 0.7% (Est: +0.7%) compared to +0.8% prior. Note that the NBH had flagged that a temporary rise in inflation in the middle of 2024 is likely due to the retrospective pricing of market services and base effects.
  • EURHUF remains below key short-term support at 388.34, the Apr 5 low. While this level has been tested previously, a clear break would reinstate a bearish theme and signal scope for further weakness towards 386.39, the Feb 22 low.
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