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Forint Slightly Outperforms CE3 Peers Ahead of NBH

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  • EURHUF sits 0.1% lower on the day at typing ahead of the NBH rate decision this afternoon, seeing the HUF moderately outperform its regional peers. Nevertheless, today’s ranges are contained within yesterday’s extremes and as such, attention still lies on key resistance and the bull trigger at 399.75, the Mar 12 high, with initial resistance marked at 395.77, the Apr 2 high. On the downside, a break of 388.34, the Apr 5 low, is required to reinstate a bearish theme.
  • Given a 50bp rate cut at today’s meeting is the overwhelming consensus view, changes to language within the policy statement and in the post-decision press briefing (14:00BST/15:00CET) are likely to be more closely watched than the rate decision itself. Among sell-side, there lacks a clear view over the rate path beyond this quarter.
    • Our preview for this afternoon’s decision can be found here.
  • Separately, Economy Minister Marton Nagy said he recommends the government take action on fuel prices when they discuss reimplementing the price cap at a cabinet meeting tomorrow. Note that the Economy Ministry said earlier today that prices at the pump were up 11pc for petrol and 13pc for diesel compared to a year earlier, contributing 0.6-0.7ppts to headline inflation.
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  • EURHUF sits 0.1% lower on the day at typing ahead of the NBH rate decision this afternoon, seeing the HUF moderately outperform its regional peers. Nevertheless, today’s ranges are contained within yesterday’s extremes and as such, attention still lies on key resistance and the bull trigger at 399.75, the Mar 12 high, with initial resistance marked at 395.77, the Apr 2 high. On the downside, a break of 388.34, the Apr 5 low, is required to reinstate a bearish theme.
  • Given a 50bp rate cut at today’s meeting is the overwhelming consensus view, changes to language within the policy statement and in the post-decision press briefing (14:00BST/15:00CET) are likely to be more closely watched than the rate decision itself. Among sell-side, there lacks a clear view over the rate path beyond this quarter.
    • Our preview for this afternoon’s decision can be found here.
  • Separately, Economy Minister Marton Nagy said he recommends the government take action on fuel prices when they discuss reimplementing the price cap at a cabinet meeting tomorrow. Note that the Economy Ministry said earlier today that prices at the pump were up 11pc for petrol and 13pc for diesel compared to a year earlier, contributing 0.6-0.7ppts to headline inflation.