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Forint Strength Continues as EURUSD Probes Nearby Resistance

HUNGARY
EURHUF (-0.25%) continues to trade with a downward bias, as forint strength continues to track that of the broader single currency, and EURUSD probes noted resistance around the 1.0930 mark. 372.38, the Mar 1 low, remains the key support level to watch.
  • Similar optimism can be seen in local equities, with the Budapest Stock Index up 1.83% and leading its regional peers. Domestic bond yields have fallen around 3bps across the curve, though remain well within recent ranges.
  • Speaking in an interview to Inforadio, Minister Marton Nagy said he sees CPI at “around 25%” in March. Should both headline and, in particular, core inflation remain stubborn, the NBH may keep rates restrictive for longer, extending the lifeline of the HUF carry trade.
  • Looking ahead, industrial production data is on the docket tomorrow morning (Est: -1.5% y/y, Prior: -3.2%) before retail sales figures take focus on Thursday (Est: -5.9% y/y, Prior: -4.5%).

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