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Former Finnish PM-'Sweden, Finland Already De-Facto NATO Members'

NATO

Speaking to Bloomberg TV, former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb states that Sweden and Finland are 'already de-facto NATO members'.

  • Adds that 'Finland is prepared in case of Russian escalation'.
  • The increase in tensions around NATO states bordering Russia comes after a missile landed in Poland (a NATO member) last night, killing two. After initial speculation that the missile could be Russian, the narrative emerging from some Western gov'ts is that the projectile was Ukrainian, and launched as part of an air-defence system against a massive barrage of rockets fired at military, energy, and civilian infrastructure by Russia on 15 November.
  • The main obstacle to Finland and Sweden joining NATO remains Turkey, whose gov't demands the extradition of Kurdish dissidents. Hungary also a block, with the country's parliament still to ratify the Nordic nations' accession.
  • Once Finland joins NATO, the Russian border with NATO states will extend dramatically, almost doubling. Could raise the risk of conflict via miscalculation by one or both sides. As seen with the Poland incident, the risk of rapid escalation is present but can be tempered by the Article 4 (emergency meeting of NATO states) before Article 5 (collective security pact) process.

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