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- Forward rates have been falling sharply in July following recent dovish comments from NBP policymakers; Glapinski once again confirmed that inflation is driven by supply shocks and that the NBP will not rush to tighten as the uncertainty remains elevated.
- The market first impression in the second quarter was that the NBP board was gradually pivoting and that the central bank was eventually going to follow the CNB and NBH and also raise rates earlier than expected.
- However, recent comments have cooled off market expectations and the FRA 6Mx9M – Wibor spread has fallen from over 50bps in the end of June to 18bps today.
- Policymaker Eryk Lon wrote today that November inflation forecasts will now be key for policy outlook, implying that the probability that the NBP will keep interest rates on hold until year-end has increased significantly.
- Hence, a quiet NBP could continue to weigh on PLN against major crosses and relative to HUF/CZK with traders chasing the monetary policy divergence narrative.