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PHILIPPINES: Fourth Quarter GDP at +5.2% YoY. 

PHILIPPINES
EM BulletPhilippinesBulletAPACEmerging Market News
  • The Philippines fourth quarter GDP print of +5.2% YoY was in line with Q3.
  • The fourth quarter result puts the full year result at +5.6%.
  • However, the government has missed its full year target of 6%-6.5%.
  • Leading regional peers in cutting rates, the BSP began in August last year and has delivered 75 bps of cuts, despite lingering concerns about inflation.
  • In the December release, inflation showed that it remains a concern with both headline and core continuing to rise bringing into question not only the recent rate cuts, but the ability to cut further.
  • Whilst the BSP has indicated the need to cut to support growth, there is an acknowledgement that a pause may be necessary given inflationary pressures or the Peso’s performance.
  • The Peso has actually outperformed its regional peers over that last three months as the USD has re-asserted itself on tariff uncertainty.
  • The Peso is down -0.24% over a three-month time horizon, whereas some of the regional peers are down 2-3%. 
  • Next week will see the January CPI release and markets will take this as a guide for the next move in rates at the BSP’s meeting on February 13.
  • The Philippines 10YR government bond yield peaked in April 2024 at 5.54%, reaching a low of 4.569% in September.
  • Yet in the face of interest rate cuts, inflation issues are dominating with yields climbing back to a peak of 5.61%.
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  • The Philippines fourth quarter GDP print of +5.2% YoY was in line with Q3.
  • The fourth quarter result puts the full year result at +5.6%.
  • However, the government has missed its full year target of 6%-6.5%.
  • Leading regional peers in cutting rates, the BSP began in August last year and has delivered 75 bps of cuts, despite lingering concerns about inflation.
  • In the December release, inflation showed that it remains a concern with both headline and core continuing to rise bringing into question not only the recent rate cuts, but the ability to cut further.
  • Whilst the BSP has indicated the need to cut to support growth, there is an acknowledgement that a pause may be necessary given inflationary pressures or the Peso’s performance.
  • The Peso has actually outperformed its regional peers over that last three months as the USD has re-asserted itself on tariff uncertainty.
  • The Peso is down -0.24% over a three-month time horizon, whereas some of the regional peers are down 2-3%. 
  • Next week will see the January CPI release and markets will take this as a guide for the next move in rates at the BSP’s meeting on February 13.
  • The Philippines 10YR government bond yield peaked in April 2024 at 5.54%, reaching a low of 4.569% in September.
  • Yet in the face of interest rate cuts, inflation issues are dominating with yields climbing back to a peak of 5.61%.