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FRA Curve Shifts Higher But USD/ZAR 1-Month Risk Reversals Surge

ZAR

The reaction in South African interest-rate markets to the SARB press conference suggests hawkish repricing, with the FRA curve steepening and shifting higher alongside SAGB yield curve, with the central bank signalling its determination to tackle inflation.

  • Spot USD/ZAR is stabilising, last sits at ZAR19.7291, up ~4,820 pips on the session. The rand is one of the worst-performing currencies among all 152 tracked by Bloomberg.
  • Participants seem to expect that there is more rand weakness on the cards, with USD/ZAR 1-month risk reversals indicating the strongest bullish bias in three years.
  • South African stocks have shown a divergent reaction, with benchmark FTSE/JSE Africa All Share index extending gains to last sit almost 1% higher on the day.

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