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FRANCE: Budget Debate To Start Amid Major Political Risks For Barnier Gov't

FRANCE
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Deputies in the National Assembly will begin debate on the 'revenue' side of the Barnier gov'ts 2025 national budget this evening at 2130CET (1530ET, 2030BST). The 'draft finance law' (PLF) has almost 3,500 amendments attached, although this is lower than the 2024 total of 5,238. The gov't faces a number of challenges with regard to the controversial document that envisages spending cuts and tax hikes that intend to bring the budget deficit under control, to 2.8% of GDP in 2029 from 6.1% in 2014. 

  • Looming over the entire debate is the prospect of the budget being defeated due to the lack of a parliamentary majority for the gov't. This in turn could see the gov't push the fiscal plans through without a vote under Art49.3 of the French constitution. If the gov't chooses this path it then opens itself up to a no-confidence vote that could risk a collapse of the conservative administration of PM Michel Barnier.
  • Crucial will be the actions of the far-right Rassemblement National, whose abstentions or support are essential to avoid the leftist New Popular Front parties defeating the gov't. Speaking to CNews earlier, RN leader Jordan Bardella said "If red lines were crossed, of course the government exposes itself and would expose itself to censure from us. This budget has neither direction nor coherence. It weakens savers, the France of work and businesses ," 
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Deputies in the National Assembly will begin debate on the 'revenue' side of the Barnier gov'ts 2025 national budget this evening at 2130CET (1530ET, 2030BST). The 'draft finance law' (PLF) has almost 3,500 amendments attached, although this is lower than the 2024 total of 5,238. The gov't faces a number of challenges with regard to the controversial document that envisages spending cuts and tax hikes that intend to bring the budget deficit under control, to 2.8% of GDP in 2029 from 6.1% in 2014. 

  • Looming over the entire debate is the prospect of the budget being defeated due to the lack of a parliamentary majority for the gov't. This in turn could see the gov't push the fiscal plans through without a vote under Art49.3 of the French constitution. If the gov't chooses this path it then opens itself up to a no-confidence vote that could risk a collapse of the conservative administration of PM Michel Barnier.
  • Crucial will be the actions of the far-right Rassemblement National, whose abstentions or support are essential to avoid the leftist New Popular Front parties defeating the gov't. Speaking to CNews earlier, RN leader Jordan Bardella said "If red lines were crossed, of course the government exposes itself and would expose itself to censure from us. This budget has neither direction nor coherence. It weakens savers, the France of work and businesses ,"