France, German Day-Ahead Prices Diverge

German and French base load prices for delivery on 4 June diverged, with prices in France increasing amid lower nuclear generation, while Germany declined slightly amid strong renewable forecasts.

• The French baseload price settled at €49.58/MWh for Tuesday, up from €27.75/MWh on 3 June.
  
• But the German baseload was lower at €107.23/MWh from €117.14/MWh in the previous session.
• French nuclear generation is at its lowest since May 12, according to daily average data from RTE.
• Generation was 39.19GW at 8:30 a.m. CET vs 5-day mvg avg of 37.28GW.
• Combined French wind and solar output is expected at 6.7GW, or about a 17% load factor on 4 June, before being between 5.8-7.3GW, or 15-19% load factors on 5-6 June, according to SpotRenewables.
• Average temperatures in Paris have been slightly revised up over 3-4 June between 0.5-1C to between 14-16.5C compared to the 30-year norm of about 16C, according to Bloomberg Model.
• In comparison, combined German solar and wind output is expected at 18.24GW, or a 12% load factor on 4 June, with output over 5-6 June between 20-26.9GW, or 13-18% load factors.
• Power demand in Germany is expected between 41.3-63GW on 4 June compared to 38.2-62.5GW on 3 June, while demand in France is expected between 34.5-49.5GW on the same day compared to 32.4-49.1GW on 3 June.
• Demand in France and Germany is expected to remain firm on 5 June at around these levels, with consumption only in France forecast to fall slightly on 6 June.