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FRANCE: National Assembly To Take Up Censure Motions Against PM ~1600CET

FRANCE
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The National Assembly is set to begin debate on two censure motions against PM Michel Barnier's gov't at 1600CET (1000ET, 1500GMT). One motion has been put forward by the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, and another by the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). The NFP has said that it will not back the RN motion, but the RN confirms that it will support any effort to remove the gov't. The motions will be heard concurrently, with the NFP presenting its motion first then the RN.

  • Following this, PM Barnier will address deputies (without a time limit). Each of the nine political group leaders in the National Assembly will then have their opportunity to speak, after which the vote will take place, first on the NFP motion and then on the RN motion. If the first motion passes the second will not be voted on. Le Monde writes the first vote could take place ~2000CET (1400ET, 1900GMT).
  • A majority of all 575 deputies is required for the motion to pass, meaning 288 in favour. Should the NFP and RN vote en masse for censure, the motion will pass comfortably.
  • President Emmanuel Macron has called out the centre-left Socialist Party in the NFP, saying they have “lost their bearings” and he does not expect them all to vote for the gov'ts removal. Of the 66 Socialist group deputies, Barnier can afford a maximum of 20 to vote against him if he is to avoid ouster.
  • Political betting market Polymarket shows bettors giving a 75% implied probability that Barnier is removed as PM (see chart below). 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of PM Being Removed from Office in 2024, %

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The National Assembly is set to begin debate on two censure motions against PM Michel Barnier's gov't at 1600CET (1000ET, 1500GMT). One motion has been put forward by the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, and another by the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). The NFP has said that it will not back the RN motion, but the RN confirms that it will support any effort to remove the gov't. The motions will be heard concurrently, with the NFP presenting its motion first then the RN.

  • Following this, PM Barnier will address deputies (without a time limit). Each of the nine political group leaders in the National Assembly will then have their opportunity to speak, after which the vote will take place, first on the NFP motion and then on the RN motion. If the first motion passes the second will not be voted on. Le Monde writes the first vote could take place ~2000CET (1400ET, 1900GMT).
  • A majority of all 575 deputies is required for the motion to pass, meaning 288 in favour. Should the NFP and RN vote en masse for censure, the motion will pass comfortably.
  • President Emmanuel Macron has called out the centre-left Socialist Party in the NFP, saying they have “lost their bearings” and he does not expect them all to vote for the gov'ts removal. Of the 66 Socialist group deputies, Barnier can afford a maximum of 20 to vote against him if he is to avoid ouster.
  • Political betting market Polymarket shows bettors giving a 75% implied probability that Barnier is removed as PM (see chart below). 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of PM Being Removed from Office in 2024, %

Keep reading...Show less