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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
The National Assembly is set to begin debate on two censure motions against PM Michel Barnier's gov't at 1600CET (1000ET, 1500GMT). One motion has been put forward by the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, and another by the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). The NFP has said that it will not back the RN motion, but the RN confirms that it will support any effort to remove the gov't. The motions will be heard concurrently, with the NFP presenting its motion first then the RN.
- Following this, PM Barnier will address deputies (without a time limit). Each of the nine political group leaders in the National Assembly will then have their opportunity to speak, after which the vote will take place, first on the NFP motion and then on the RN motion. If the first motion passes the second will not be voted on. Le Monde writes the first vote could take place ~2000CET (1400ET, 1900GMT).
- A majority of all 575 deputies is required for the motion to pass, meaning 288 in favour. Should the NFP and RN vote en masse for censure, the motion will pass comfortably.
- President Emmanuel Macron has called out the centre-left Socialist Party in the NFP, saying they have “lost their bearings” and he does not expect them all to vote for the gov'ts removal. Of the 66 Socialist group deputies, Barnier can afford a maximum of 20 to vote against him if he is to avoid ouster.
- Political betting market Polymarket shows bettors giving a 75% implied probability that Barnier is removed as PM (see chart below).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of PM Being Removed from Office in 2024, %
Source: Polymarket
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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