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FRANCE: RN Retain First Place, But Short Of Majority In Latest Ifop Poll

FRANCE
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The latest rolling Ifop opinion poll shows the right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) retaining its first-place position with 36% support, up 0.5% on the previous poll. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance sits in second place with 29.5% support (also up 0.5%), while the centrist Ensemble alliance supportive of President Emmanuel Macron sits in third place, down 0.5%.

  • While seat projections should be taken with some caution before the 30 June first round has taken place on 30 June, the latest from Ifop shows RN winning between 220 and 260 seats. With 289 seats required for an overall majority, it would seem that even at the high end, RN would still be reliant on outside support to form a gov't.
  • The NFP is projected to win between 185 and 215 seats, with Ensemble between 70 and 100 in what would be a significant blow to Macron's standing.
  • RN president Jordan Bardella has said that unless his party wins a majority, he will not serve as PM. If this stance holds Macron, who as president appoints the PM, would then be in a scenario of potentially appointing a PM from the leftist NFP as a minority administration.

Chart 1. Seat Projection Based on 24 June Ifop Poll

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The latest rolling Ifop opinion poll shows the right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) retaining its first-place position with 36% support, up 0.5% on the previous poll. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance sits in second place with 29.5% support (also up 0.5%), while the centrist Ensemble alliance supportive of President Emmanuel Macron sits in third place, down 0.5%.

  • While seat projections should be taken with some caution before the 30 June first round has taken place on 30 June, the latest from Ifop shows RN winning between 220 and 260 seats. With 289 seats required for an overall majority, it would seem that even at the high end, RN would still be reliant on outside support to form a gov't.
  • The NFP is projected to win between 185 and 215 seats, with Ensemble between 70 and 100 in what would be a significant blow to Macron's standing.
  • RN president Jordan Bardella has said that unless his party wins a majority, he will not serve as PM. If this stance holds Macron, who as president appoints the PM, would then be in a scenario of potentially appointing a PM from the leftist NFP as a minority administration.

Chart 1. Seat Projection Based on 24 June Ifop Poll

Keep reading...Show less