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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- On Friday, the NBP revised its inflation forecast to the upside (as expected).
- Av. annual inflation is now expected to run at 10.8% in 2022 and 9.0% in 2023 before easing more visibly to 4.2% in 2024 according to the NBP.
- Forward rates have been constantly rising in recent weeks amid surging inflation risks following the dramatic PLN depreciation.
- With the FRA 1Mx4M currently trading 90bps above the WIbor 3M, the market is expecting another ‘large’ hike for the April meeting (i.e. 75bps hike, see chart).
- FRA 3Mx6M is trading at 160bps above Wibor 3M, implying that market is currently pricing in a terminal rate between 5% and 5.25%.
- As a reminder, the NBP decided to raise its benchmark rate by 75bps to 3.5% last week, its highest level since February 2013.
- Next important data to watch is CPI inflation coming out on March 15, expected to decelerate to 8.3% YoY in February (from 9.2% the previous month) on the back of temporary VAT tax cuts.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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