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Freeport Restart Steps and Lower Production Support US Natgas

NATGAS

US Natgas is drifting lower but finding some support in recent days after falling about 0.9$/mmbtu from a high of 3.56$/mmbtu last week.

    • US Natgas MAR 23 down -1% at 2.66$/mmbtu
  • The Freeport LNG application to US regulators to add natural gas to one of the three idled units is the latest step towards a restart. Market expectations is for a restart in February, but full operations will take longer with Rystad estimating 60 days from restart to 100% utilization.
  • Lower natural gas production is supporting prices with yesterday estimated down at 97.5bcf/d driven by a decline in output from the Permian region according to Bloomberg.
  • Domestic demand is above normal again today at 109.7bcf/d. The latest NOAA forecast shows above normal temperatures in central and eastern areas in the 6-14 day period and below normal expected in the west.
  • Deliveries to US LNG export terminals are today almost unchanged from yesterday estimated at 12.8bcf/d. Exports to Mexico are today at 6.4bcf/d.
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