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POWER: French Front Month Could Trade in Green Once Trading Starts

POWER
CEEMEAEurozoneEnergy BulletsFranceBulletPower BulletsCommodities

France's front month could trade in green – once it becomes liquid –  to track similar movements of neighbouring Germany amid increases in TTF and emissions. Temperatures in Paris have been slightly revised up on the day 2-4 January, albeit, still below the seasonal average. Wind is expected at just a 12% load factor tomorrow, much lower than Germany, which could place France at a premium to the latter.

  • France Base Power FEB 25 unchanged at 100.87 EUR/MWh on 31 Dec 2024
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 4% at 115.36 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 73.92 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 2.4% at 50.055 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 84% of capacity as of Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
  • EdF’s 880MW Bugey 5 reactor is offline until the end of 2 January in an unplanned outage.
  • The 1.49GW Civaux 1 nuke is offline until 5 January, with the 1.62GW Flamanville 3 out also until the same day.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised up on the day by as much as 0.7C over 2-4 January.  Temperatures are expected to remain below the norm until 4 January before flipping above the next day to be as high as 8.3-9.3C over 5-6 January. However, cooler temps are expected, with forecasts suggesting average temperatures to reach as low as -0.4C on 9 January.
  • Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to drop to -0.2C on Friday from 4.6C on Thursday and below the seasonal average.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 67.50GW on Friday from 63.70GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
  • Wind output in France is forecast to fall to 2.39GW, or a 12% load factor on Friday from 5.18GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables. But will pick up next day to be at a 27% load factor.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised down to end at 535GWh on 16 January, compared with 750GWh forecasted previously
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France's front month could trade in green – once it becomes liquid –  to track similar movements of neighbouring Germany amid increases in TTF and emissions. Temperatures in Paris have been slightly revised up on the day 2-4 January, albeit, still below the seasonal average. Wind is expected at just a 12% load factor tomorrow, much lower than Germany, which could place France at a premium to the latter.

  • France Base Power FEB 25 unchanged at 100.87 EUR/MWh on 31 Dec 2024
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 4% at 115.36 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 73.92 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 2.4% at 50.055 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 84% of capacity as of Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
  • EdF’s 880MW Bugey 5 reactor is offline until the end of 2 January in an unplanned outage.
  • The 1.49GW Civaux 1 nuke is offline until 5 January, with the 1.62GW Flamanville 3 out also until the same day.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised up on the day by as much as 0.7C over 2-4 January.  Temperatures are expected to remain below the norm until 4 January before flipping above the next day to be as high as 8.3-9.3C over 5-6 January. However, cooler temps are expected, with forecasts suggesting average temperatures to reach as low as -0.4C on 9 January.
  • Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to drop to -0.2C on Friday from 4.6C on Thursday and below the seasonal average.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 67.50GW on Friday from 63.70GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
  • Wind output in France is forecast to fall to 2.39GW, or a 12% load factor on Friday from 5.18GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables. But will pick up next day to be at a 27% load factor.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised down to end at 535GWh on 16 January, compared with 750GWh forecasted previously