French-German Day-Ahead Discount Narrows to Multi-Week Low

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts fell on the day, with France moving down at a slower pace to the latter amid lower wind on the day, with a sharp rise in nuclear availability keeping gains limited, while Germany was dented due to higher wind – narrowing the FR-DE discount to the lowest since 23 July.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €52.62/MWh from €92.11/MWh on the previous day.
  
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €39.29/MWh from €56.70/MWh on the previous day.
• FR-DE discount was at €13.33/MWh from a €35.41/MWh discount in the previous session.
• German wind is expected at 20.45GW, or a 32% load factor on 21 August and is expected to remain firm the next day at a 24% load factor – albeit likely supporting power prices from the previous day. But will pick up to a 31% load factor, or 19.75GW, on 23 August – possibly weighing on delivery costs.
• German power demand over 21-24 August has been revised up, with the highest upward revision recorded on 22 August at +325MW. Demand is forecasted between 52.5-53.7GW over 21-23 August, dropping to 42-44GW over 24-25 August, ECMWF shows.
• In France, wind forecast point to output at 3.02GW, or a 15% load factor over 21-22 August, rising to a 27% load factor the next day – which could widen the FR-DE discount, coupled with firm nuclear availability.
• Max temperatures in Paris are expected at 22C on 21 August before rising to as high as 25.1-25.8C over 22-24 August – possibly spurring cooling demand. Temperatures will begin to ease over the next few days before picking up to reach 29.6C on 29 August.
• French nuclear availability rose to 73% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, up from 67% the day before, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.