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French, German Day Ahead Drops on Low Weekend Demand

POWER

The German and French day-ahead base-load contracts were sharply down on the day amid lower power demand over the weekend. This trend could change from the beginning of next week as wind forecasts point to comparatively low wind in both countries, likely supporting power prices, coupled with rising power demand from the weekend.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €80.83/MWh from €90.95/MWh in the previous day. Peak load prices were seen at €61.32/MWh from €83.15/MWh.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €41.39/MWh from €64.77/MWh in the previous day. Peak load prices were seen at €34.01/MWh from €66.36/MWh.
  • Despite the fall, no negative hourly power prices were recorded in both countries.
  • German wind output is expected at 1.11-6.86GW, or load factors of 2-11% over 27-28 July before being at 2.01-3.76GW over 29-30 July, according to Spot Renewables. This is likely to support power prices to early next week from the weekend.
  • German power demand is forecast to average between 40.5-43.1GW over 27-28 July, down from 51.7GW forecast for Friday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then increase between 50.2-51.2GW over 29-30 July.
  • In contrast, French wind output is expected at 1.5-2.6GW, or load factors of 8-12% over the weekend before rising to 11-15% load factors over 29-30 July – which could keep France at a discount to Germany.
  • French power demand is also expected to follow a similar trend of low weekend demand before picking up over 29-30 July.
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