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Fresh Lows Amid Higher Inventories, Potentially Less Policy Easing In The Near Term

IRON ORE

Iron ore, in terms of the active SGX contract, is tracking just under $111/ton in recent dealings. This is fresh lows for the benchmark going back to late Oct last year. Steel prices are also lower, with the onshore China trend weaker since the start of March.

  • In terms of catalysts for the move, we did see another tick higher in iron ore inventories at the end of last week. We are now back to early March levels from last year. Inventories have risen every week since late Nov last year.
  • Saturday's inflation data also showed an upside surprise for headline CPI, which may have diminished hopes of a near term easing, another potential headwind, albeit at the margins.
  • Aggregate stocks indices are mixed in the first part of trade today, like while for real estate sub indices, which historically have had some correlation with iron ore (this has been weaker in the past 6 months though).

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